As NDP-Liberal deal ends, what would it take to trigger an election?

As soon as NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh announced he had “ripped up” the supply and confidence agreement with the Liberal government Wednesday, one big question loomed above all others: will Canadians face a snap election this year?

No one seems to know for sure — not even Singh himself.

“I know this now means that election timing has become more uncertain (and) more likely,” he told reporters Thursday.

“I will look at any vote that comes before us and we will make a decision in the best interest of Canadians, as any minority government normally operates,” he said.

Canada’s fixed election date law means a federal election must happen no later than October 2025. The implosion of the NDP-Liberal deal, which was meant to keep the Liberals in power until June 2025 in exchange for mutually agreeable policies like dental care, now raises the possibility of an earlier vote.

But political analysts tend to agree that the NDP won’t immediately try to topple the government when the House of Commons reconvenes on Sept. 16. That’s partly thanks to the rules of the House, but also because the party may want some time to make the case to voters as a true alternative to the surging Conservatives.

“I do think there’s a little bit of time there (where the NDP will be able to) distance itself from the Liberals and tell the NDP story exclusive from that, that will be very helpful,” said Mélanie Richer, a principal in communications and public affairs at Earnscliffe Strategies and a former communications director for Singh who also worked on the last two NDP campaigns.

A test of confidence in the government is now a major possibility in the coming fall session — and all eyes will be on how the NDP chooses to cast their votes if one does come.

In order to govern in Canada’s Westminster parliamentary system, any party seeking to form government must be able to hold the confidence of the House of Commons. That means they must be able to get support from the majority of members in that chamber.

A confidence vote would trigger a snap election if a government cannot get that majority of support on a matter that is a test of confidence.

Tests of confidence can come up in multiple ways, according to the House of Commons Procedure and Practice, Third Edition, 2017.

• “explicitly worded motions which state that the House has, or has not, confidence in the government;
• motions declared by the government to be questions of confidence; and
• implicit motions of confidence, that is, motions traditionally deemed to be questions of confidence, such as motions for the granting of supply (although the government may not necessarily lose confidence over an individual item of supply), motions concerning the budgetary policy of the government and motions respecting the Address in Reply to the Speech from the Throne.”

Budgets and other new spending or supply bills are always seen as “de facto” confidence votes, as they dictate how the government operates and executes its agenda.

The Liberals will table their next federal budget in spring 2025 but would also face a confidence vote later this fall on the fall economic statement. Other matters of supply include the supplementary estimates and the main estimates, which authorize interim spending and allocation of funds in between the dispersal of monies laid out in the budget.

Confidence votes can also be put forward when a member, typically from an opposition party, declares a lack of confidence in the government.

Opposition parties would need to wait for one of their allotted days in the House of Commons sitting calendar — often referred to as “opposition days” — to set an agenda that would include introducing and getting to quickly debate and vote on a motion of non-confidence. There are 22 allotted days per calendar year, and the Conservatives, as the official opposition, get the largest share, with the rest divvied up based on each party’s seat count.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre noted in a press conference Wednesday after Singh’s announcement that parties have yet to receive the calendar for the fall session, so he could not say specifically when he might have the chance to call for a confidence vote. But he indicated he will do so at the earliest opportunity, and challenged Singh to back him when that day comes.

“My message to ‘Sellout Singh’ is this: if you’re serious about ending your costly carbon tax coalition with Trudeau, then commit today to voting for a ‘carbon tax election’ at the earliest confidence vote in the House of Commons,” Poilievre told reporters in Nanaimo, B.C.

Another possibility would be a confidence test being decided on by the government itself, which can designate any matter it chooses as a matter of confidence.

The Liberals have done just that in recent years, most notably with the legislation that invoked the Emergencies Act to counter the “Freedom Convoy” protests in downtown Ottawa and Canadian border crossings.

As it did with the NDP in that case, turning a bill into a matter of confidence can sometimes force an opposition party to side with the government on controversial legislation if the party doesn’t want to force an election, and raises the stakes for caucus members of a government who might have abstained or voted against a matter of government policy if the vote was not a test of confidence.

But the NDP’s withdrawal from its deal includes a withdrawal from the pledge to back the Liberals on matters of confidence and given the Conservatives’ desire for an election, makes it less likely the Liberals would take such a risk, analysts say.

“There’s not really any easy way to try to call a Conservative bluff, because the Conservatives probably aren’t bluffing,” said Stewart Prest, a political science lecturer at the University of British Columbia.

“They really would like to go to the polls.”

A potential friction point for the NDP would likely be any kind of back-to-work legislation for any of the ongoing labour disputes roiling Canada right now — including the fight between rail workers and CN Rail and CPKC, and a looming Air Canada pilots strike.

If the government were to designate any such legislation as a confidence vote or if the NDP were to move a motion of non-confidence over such legislation, it could be the one area where New Democrats are almost assured to vote against the government, Richer said.

“Even under the deal, the NDP made clear to the Liberals, ‘You are on your own there,'” she said. “So I would expect the same kind of thing we saw any any of those labour actions come to the House of Commons.”

Multiple other bills are still outstanding in the House that would need support from the NDP or another party to pass.

They include the Online Harms Act and legislation addressing rail and port safety, airport standards, advance voting expansions and changes to the military justice system and how it handles sexual misconduct cases.

Singh has made clear the NDP will be considering each piece of legislation introduced in the coming year on a case-by-case basis.

The next few weeks or months leading up to the next election — whenever it is — will require a lot more deal-making on the part of the Liberals, experts say.

“I think that’s what we’re going to see for the next year is kind of what we saw with the Harper government: no stable arrangements, but lots and lots of dealing,” said Jonathan Malloy, a political science professor at Carleton University.

Another big factor will be how the Bloc Quebecois operates. While recent polling has shown them doing very well in Quebec against the Conservatives, they may also want to wait and see what leverage they could get from the Liberals before voting non-confidence.

Their prospects could grow even more if the NDP declines to bring down the government, said University of Windsor political science professor Lydia Miljan.

“If the polls hold like they are now, it could mean potentially that the Bloc Quebecois are the official opposition after the next election,” she told Global News.

“If the NDP continue to vote with the government and continue to show confidence in the government, with all these non-confidence votes that I expect to see over the next coming months, it’s going to make it that much more difficult for them when it comes to Election Day.”